Critical Minerals Sector Poised for Strong Returns as EV Demand Surges 28%

Date: Aug 29, 2025

By: Imogen Minall

The global critical minerals sector is experiencing fundamental transformation driven by macroeconomic pressures, geopolitical realignments, and unprecedented government support, creating compelling investment opportunities for strategically positioned assets in secure jurisdictions.
Market rationalization is separating sustainable operations from unprofitable ones, with over 50% of global nickel supply now operating at losses, while electric vehicle demand remains robust with 21% year-over-year growth and 28% increase in nickel deployment for EV batteries in the first half of 2025.
Government policy support has evolved from rhetoric to concrete action, with unprecedented high-level engagement including direct presidential meetings with mining executives and the largest Canadian trade mission for critical minerals to date.
Strategic partnerships with established industrial players are providing third-party validation and execution confidence, while elevated interest rates and geopolitical tensions are reshaping investment criteria toward jurisdictionally secure projects with strong operational metrics.
Technical differentiation, operational scale, and revenue diversification from polymetallic deposits are becoming primary differentiators as institutional mandates increasingly prioritize supply chain security and environmental compliance over pure cost leadership.

The global critical minerals sector is undergoing a fundamental transformation driven by macroeconomic pressures, geopolitical realignments, and unprecedented government support. Global electric vehicle sales continue to demonstrate strong momentum, with July 2025 reporting a 21% year-over-year increase and 27% growth year-to-date. Despite concerns about demand weakness, the deployment of nickel in EV batteries for cars sold for first half of 2025 increased 28% year-over-year.

China’s strategic accumulation provides additional validation for the long-term thesis. China has doubled its Class 1 nickel reserves since late 2024, underscoring the metal’s critical role in electric vehicle batteries and the broader energy transition. This state-led stockpiling suggests sophisticated market participants view current prices as a strategic buying opportunity.

Despite near-term volatility, structural changes are creating compelling opportunities for investors willing to focus on strategically positioned assets in secure jurisdictions. The convergence of supply constraints, policy support, and long-term demand growth presents a unique investment landscape across nickel, tin, and rutile markets.

Government Policy Support Reaches Unprecedented Levels

Government commitment to critical minerals development has evolved from rhetorical support to concrete policy implementation and high-level engagement:

The Canadian government is hosting what appears to be the largest trade mission for critical minerals companies to date, indicating institutional recognition of the sector’s strategic importance.

In the United States, direct executive engagement demonstrates policy seriousness. As Canada Nickel’s Selby observed, there is an unprecedented high-level engagement occurred with mining executives from BHP and Rio Tinto meeting at the White House to discuss the Resolution Copper project and strategies to overcome legal obstacles. The historical rarity of such direct presidential engagement with mining companies, characterizing it as a clear indicator of government seriousness about critical minerals development.

The United States Inflation Reduction Act includes provisions that effectively require battery manufacturers to source materials from domestic or allied nation suppliers to qualify for tax incentives, creating effective market segmentation where projects in allied jurisdictions with strong environmental, social, and governance credentials can command premium pricing and secure long-term offtake agreements.

Japanese partners provide pathway to world’s most competitive project development debt through export credit agencies, while Canadian federal and provincial governments have responded with targeted support including refundable tax credits, infrastructure funding, and expedited permitting processes.

Nickel Market Rebalancing

The nickel market is experiencing forced rationalization that is separating sustainable operations from those dependent on favorable external conditions. Over 50-55% of global nickel supply is now unprofitable, accelerating closures and exposing jurisdictional risk in dominant producers like Indonesia. This market cleansing is creating space for more efficient operations with superior cost structures.

Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby highlighted the strategic timing advantage:

“For investors, having something that is nine separate resources in a district is the kind of scale that a BHP or Rio Tinto, once they decide they want to get into nickel at some point in the future, is exactly the kind of asset that those very large companies are looking for.”

Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel Corp

The development of projects like Canada Nickel’s Crawford demonstrates the type of assets positioned for revaluation. The Crawford project presents compelling economics with a Feasibility Study Net Present Value of US$2.8 billion and an Internal Rate of Return of 17.6%. Importantly, Selby noted the accelerated development timeline:

“We’re on track to get that federal permit before the end of the year, which would be just over six years from the fifth drill hole to getting that main permit in place, and then be in production well before the end of the decade, 2027-2028.”

In Australia, Ardea Resources isadvancing one of the world’s most significant nickel-cobalt projects during a period of widespread industry consolidation. Managing Director and CEO Andrew Penkethman emphasizes the company’s take despite current market challenges,

“From a nickel price point perspective, it’s the ideal time to be advancing our studies and looking to develop a very large strategic nickel cobalt operation.”

The Goongarrie nickel project represents Australia’s largest nickel-cobalt resource and ranks among the world’s largest deposits which has attracted the attention of major Japanese industrial partners, positioning the company as a potential cornerstone supplier for the global energy transition.

Rutile Market in Supply Constraints & Strategic Repositioning

The rutile market exemplifies how elevated interest rates and geopolitical tensions are reshaping investment criteria toward jurisdictionally secure projects with strong operational metrics. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s “higher-for-longer” interest rate stance is reshaping global capital markets and increasing the cost of capital for new mining developments, particularly in emerging markets.

Sovereign Metals CEO Ben Stoikovich emphasized the project’s economic resilience in this environment:

“The results of our Optimized Pre-Feasibility Study were exceptional it shows a pre-tax net present value of over $2.3 billion US with an annual average earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of over $400 million we would be the world’s largest rutile producer and we’d have a 64% operating margin”

The Kasiya project’s operational advantages address key investor concerns about execution risk highlighting metallurgical benefits. These characteristics reduce both operational complexity and environmental impact, addressing environmental, social, and governance screening criteria increasingly applied by institutional investors.

Strategic partnerships provide additional validation and execution confidence. Stoikovich noted the development momentum:

“The Sovereign team along with our partner Rio Tinto is rapidly progressing with the Kasiya definitive feasibility study which we aim to publish in the fourth quarter of this year.”

Rio Tinto’s involvement provides both technical expertise and financial credibility that addresses investor concerns regarding execution risk in challenging market conditions.

Tin Production Expansion Captures Market Opportunities

The tin sector is demonstrating operational momentum with companies successfully executing expansion plans despite broader market challenges.

Andrada Mining completed construction of its Jig Plant on schedule, representing a strategic capacity expansion at favorable capital costs. Andrada CEO Anthony Viljoen emphasized the operational benefits:

“The completion of the Jig Plant on time and within budget is a smart, low-cost upgrade that will immediately boost Uis tin production on the completion of commissioning. The plant is a key milestone towards doubling production and positions Andrada well to capture the benefits of a robust and strengthening tin market.”

The modular design approach demonstrates disciplined capital allocation while maintaining operational flexibility. The Jig Plant is designed for a nameplate capacity of 80 to 100 tonnes per hour, with a potential to process up to 40 000 tonnes of ore per month at a potential recovery rate of 70%. This scalable expansion strategy allows companies to respond to market conditions while controlling capital exposure.

Meanwhile in DRC, exploration activities are also yielding positive results as Rome Resources CEO Paul Barrett highlighted the progress at Mont Agoma:

“We are pleased to see consistent mineralisation coming through in our follow-up drilling at Mont Agoma. Drill holes MADD030 and MADD030A suggest additional tin potential to the east of Mont Agoma and the copper grades emerging from MADD032 are equally encouraging.”

The polymetallic nature of these deposits provides revenue diversification that enhances project economics. Recent drilling has encountered tin and copper mineralisation at both newly identified zones in addition to deeper extensions of known zones, with significant copper intercepts expected to add to the growing polymetallic resource at Mont Agoma.

Strategic Asset Quality Differentiates Investment Opportunities

The current market environment is revealing which projects possess the fundamental characteristics necessary to attract capital under heightened scrutiny. Scale, jurisdiction, and operational advantages are becoming primary differentiators as institutional mandates increasingly prioritize supply chain security and sustainability compliance.

Ardea Resources exemplifies this strategic positioning through its partnership with Japanese industrial giants. CEO Andrew Penkethman emphasized the partnership benefits:

“Anyone that’s worked with the Japanese knows that they’re notorious for very detailed due diligence, but it takes time. The level of collaboration and due diligence is exceptional.”

This extensive evaluation process culminated in comprehensive support where the Japanese consortium is funding 100% of the $98.5 million definitive feasibility study. The Goongarrie project’s scale provides exceptional strategic value. Ardea Resources owns the Goongarrie nickel project, Australia’s largest nickel-cobalt resource and one of the world’s largest, with a 40-year reserve life and potential to operate for over 50 years.

Andrew Penkethman, MD & CEO of Ardea Resources

Technical advantages further enhance project economics and reduce operational risk. Penkethman noted specific cost benefits:

“We already know and we’ve demonstrated that we have very low acid consumption [which is significant given that] acid being the largest cost consumable for all HPAL projects […] If we can secure that material from the same open pits proximal to the process plant, it’s a big operational advantage for us.”

The Investment Thesis for Critical Minerals

Macroeconomic disruption creates entry opportunities: Market stress from tariffs, elevated rates, and currency volatility is forcing asset repricing, creating opportunities for selective accumulation of high-quality projects at attractive valuations
Jurisdictional security commands premium valuations: Projects in stable, Western-aligned jurisdictions with transparent regulatory frameworks are increasingly valued over pure cost leadership as supply chain security becomes paramount
Government policy support is materializing: Unprecedented high-level engagement, trade missions, and concrete financing commitments suggest policy rhetoric is translating into actionable support for domestic critical minerals development
Strategic partnerships validate project quality: Third-party validation from established industrial partners like Sumitomo, Mitsubishi, and Rio Tinto provides execution confidence and demonstrates institutional due diligence
Operational scale creates competitive advantages: Large, long-life deposits with decades of production potential offer institutional investors the asset quality and longevity required for meaningful portfolio allocation
Technical differentiation reduces execution risk: Projects demonstrating superior metallurgy, low operating costs, and environmental compliance address key institutional investment criteria while reducing operational uncertainty
Market timing favors patient capital: Development timelines aligned with anticipated market recovery (2027-2029) position qualified projects to capture market share as supply rationalization creates capacity constraints
Revenue diversification enhances project economics: Polymetallic deposits providing multiple revenue streams offer economic insulation against single commodity volatility while maximizing resource utilization
Focus on permitted, funded projects: Prioritize assets with regulatory approvals, established financing, and clear development timelines to reduce execution risk and accelerate return realization
Emphasize ESG-compliant operations: Environmental and social compliance is becoming a requirement rather than preference, making ESG-aligned projects essential for institutional capital access

The critical minerals sector transformation represents more than cyclical volatility—it reflects fundamental shifts in how governments, institutions, and markets value supply security, operational resilience, and strategic positioning. While near-term uncertainty persists, the convergence of policy support, market rationalization, and long-term demand growth creates a compelling investment environment for strategically positioned assets. Companies demonstrating operational excellence, jurisdictional advantages, and strategic partnerships are emerging as the clear beneficiaries of this sector transformation, offering investors exposure to essential materials for the global energy transition while benefiting from increasingly supportive policy frameworks.

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Guy Keller

Portfolio Manager,
Tribeca Investment Partners

Tribeca’s Nuclear Energy Opportunities Strategy invests in the equity and debt of companies involved in the nuclear energy industry with a key focus on the uranium sector. Portfolio Manager Guy Keller runs the only dedicated uranium sector strategy in Australia and is one of only a handful globally. The strategy has been running for 7 years and has generated returns of ~600% net of fee since inception.

Guy has over two decades of global commodity trading experience including 15 years as Head of Asia Base Metals Trading at Macquarie Bank. He holds a Bachelor of Social Science majoring in Economics from UNSW and a Master of Applied Finance from Macquarie University, Sydney.

Ron Bernbaum

Founder & CEO,
PearTree Securities Canada

With an extensive background in law, tax and finance, Ron has blended his proven talent for recognizing, structuring and implementing innovative, yet conservative, financing structures with a sincere, lifelong dedication to supporting philanthropic causes.

Amongst his accomplishments, Ron has structured and created an investment fund listed with the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, a REIT listed on the American Stock Exchange, and a family of tax-efficient mutual funds for investment dealers. As early as 2004, Ron presented the use of flow through shares to philanthropists and charities as a way to reduce the after-tax cost of giving. Ron has the ability to productize tax-efficient financial products that meet both the policy and technical requirements of the tax legislation and he was the driving force in the first flow through donation transactions, the first CRA ruling and the first Revenu Quebec ruling.

In 2021 Ron was the recipient of the AME 2021 Special Tribute Award for service to the minerals industry in BC. AME acknowledged Ron for his role in creating the Charitable Flow-Through financing mechanism.

Rob McEwen

Executive Chairman & CEO,
McEwen Mining Inc.

Rob is the Chairman and Chief Owner of McEwen Mining, which has three producing mines in Nevada, Ontario, and Argentina and holds 48% interest in the large Los Azules copper project in Argentina. Rob has been associated with the gold industry all his career, his first 18 years in the investment industry and since 1990 as CEO of several gold mining companies.

Rob is the founder of Goldcorp, where he took the company from a market capitalization of $50 million to over $8 billion. With a cost of investment in McEwen Mining (NYSE, TSX: MUX) and McEwen Copper of US$225 million, he owns 16% of MUX, 13% of McEwen Copper and takes a salary of $1 per year.

Rob and his wife, Cheryl, have donated over $60 million to encourage excellence and innovation in healthcare and education.

Rob was awarded the Order of Canada in 2007, the Queen Elizabeth’s Diamond Jubilee Award in 2013, was inducted into the Mining Hall of Fame in 2017 and has Honorary Doctor of Law Degrees from York University and Western University.

He is also a member of the Dean’s Advisory Board, Schulich School of Business; X Prize Foundation: Vision Circle and Board of Trustees; a member of CEO (Chief Executive Organization) and of WPO (World Presidents’ Organization) and serves on the Advisory Board of the McEwen School of Architecture.

Abigail Hunter

Executive Director,
SAFE Centre for Critical Minerals Strategy

Abigail Hunter is the Executive Director of SAFE’s Ambassador Alfred Hoffman Jr. Center for Critical Minerals Strategy (Minerals Center). Previously, Abigail served as Director of International Affairs and Partnerships within the Minerals Center.

Before joining SAFE full time, Hunter headed federal government affairs for Quebec for nearly three years as the senior attachée in Washington, D.C. Her mandate focused on the energy, environment, and trade relationship between the province and United States. Hunter started her career at the National Governors Association, where she led the association’s international work.

Hunter completed her Masters in Sustainable Energy at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Her four-part capstone on aluminum’s clean energy paradox was published by the SAFE Center for Strategic Industrial Metals. She received her Bachelor of Commerce from McGill University with a double major inInternational Management and Managing for Sustainability.

Born in Toronto and growing up in New Jersey, Hunter is a proud dual citizen and conflicted hockey fan.

Joe Mazumdar

Editor / Analyst and Publisher,
Exploration Insights

Mr. Mazumdar joined Brent Cook as co-editor and analyst of Exploration Insights in December 2015 and transitioned into the sole editor soon after.

His previous experience includes six years as Senior Mining Analyst at Haywood Securities and Canaccord Genuity in Vancouver, five years as Director of Strategic Planning, Corporate Development at Newmont Mining (Denver), and over three years as Senior Market Analyst/CommodityTrader at Phelps Dodge (now Freeport McMoRan, Phoenix). Before becoming a mining analyst, he spent over a decade as an exploration geologist in different capacities for IAMGOLD, North Minerals, and RTZ in South America (Argentina, Chile, Peru, and Ecuador), MIM Exploration in Queensland, Australia, and Noranda and others in Western Canada (British Columbia, Yukon) and the Northwest Territories. He holds a BSc in Geology (1988) from the University of Alberta, an MSc in Geology and Mining (1997) from James Cook University (Queensland), and an MSc in Mineral Economics (2003) from the Colorado School of Mines.

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Hon. John Baird

Senior Business Advisor,
Bennett Jones LLP.

John Baird is a Senior Advisor at Bennett Jones LLP and a former Senior Cabinet Minister in the Government of Canada.

An instrumental figure in bilateral trade and investment relationships, Mr. Baird has played a leading role in the Canada-China dialogue and worked to build ties with ASEAN countries. In addition, Mr. Baird has worked closely with international leaders to strengthen security and economic ties with the United States and Middle Eastern countries.

A native of Ottawa, Baird spent three terms as a Member of Parliament and four years as Foreign Minister. He also served as President of the Treasury Board, Minister of the Environment, Minister of Transport and Infrastructure, and Leader of the Government in the House of Commons. In 2010, he was selected by Members of Parliament from all parties as Parliamentarian of the Year. Prior to entering federal politics, Mr. Baird spent ten years in the Ontario Legislature where he served as Minister of Community and Social Services, Minister of Energy, and Government House Leader.

In addition to his work with Bennett Jones, Mr. Baird sits on the advisory board of Barrick Gold Corp., the corporate boards of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPKC), Canfor Corporation (as Chair), the FWD Group and PineBridge Investments. He also serves as a Senior Advisor at Eurasia Group, a global political risk consultancy.

Mr. Baird also volunteers his time with Community Living Ontario, an organization that supports individuals with developmental disabilities, the Prince’s Trust Canada, the charitable office of His Majesty King Charles III, and is a board member of the Friends of Israel Initiative. He holds an Honours Bachelor of Arts in Political Studies and an Honourary Doctorate of Law from Queen’s University at Kingston.

Roderik van Losenoord

Senior Partner,
Nebari Holdings LLC.

Prior to starting Nebari, Roderik spent over 15 years in the metals & mining industry. He started his career in base metals production in Sudbury and held various technical and commercial roles with Xstrata. He later transitioned to Xstrata’s Coal and Iron Ore Division and eventually joined Glencore’s team where he focused on M&A and Business Development.

Roderik attained a master’s degree in extractive metallurgy in the Netherlands at Delft University of Technology and an MBA in Paris at the Collège des Ingénieurs.

Jon Case

VP, Portfolio Manager & Research Lead – Equities,
CI Global Asset Management.

Jon Case, Vice-President, Portfolio Manager & Research Lead – Equities, joined CI GAM in 2011 and is the sector lead for materials. Prior to joining CI GAM, Jon was a portfolio manager at another Canadian asset manager. Before that, he was a research analyst specializing in precious metals and a partner at Paradigm Capital, an independent institutional boutique. Prior to equity research Jon held a position at RBC Dominion Securities as an Investment Advisor. Jon is a CFA charterholder, holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Honors) from McMaster University, and a Master of Finance from the University of Toronto. He is a member of the CFA Toronto Society and loves to golf and kitesurf when not playing dad to his two kids.

Paul Brink

VP, Portfolio Manager & Research Lead – Equities,
CI Global Asset Management

Paul Brink is President & CEO and a director of Franco-Nevada. Prior to his
appointment as CEO, Mr. Brink served as President & Chief Operating Officer of
Franco-Nevada from May 2018 to May 2020. He has been with Franco-Nevada since its
IPO in 2007 and successfully led its business development activities as SVP, Business
Development from 2008 until his promotion to President & Chief Operating Officer in
2018. Mr. Brink is active with a number of not-for-profit organizations. He previously
had roles in corporate development at Newmont, investment banking at BMO Nesbitt
Burns and project financing at UBS. Mr. Brink holds a Bachelor’s degree in Mechanical
Engineering from the University of Witwatersrand and a Master’s degree in
Management Studies from Oxford University.

Mike Alkin

Chief Investment Officer,
Sachem Cove Partners LLC

Michael (Mike) Alkin is a principal of Sachem Cove Partners, LLC, the general partner of Sachem Cove Special Opportunities Fund, LP. He is also the Chief Investment Officer of Public Equities of Lloyd Harbor Capital Management, LLC, the investment manager of the Fund, and in that role is primarily responsible for the Fund’s investment process. He has nearly 30 years of hedge fund experience with experience across many industries. Prior to Sachem Cove and Lloyd Harbor, he was an analyst and partner for 7 years at Knott Partners. Before Knott, among his positions he worked at Walker Smith Capital, Zweig-DiMenna and Windsor Partners.

David Lotan

Non-Executive Chairman, Aurion Resources Ltd.

CEO, LHI Capital

Mr. Lotan is the President of LHI an investment company focused on natural resource opportunities. In his previous career David was the founder and CEO of the structured finance operations of Polar Capital – a Canadian merchant bank and alternative asset manager, acted as a portfolio manager for the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and was a risk management consultant with PricewaterhouseCoopers focused on commodities and rates. Mr. Lotan is a Chartered Accountant and CPA.

Nicolas Carter

Executive Vice President,
Uranium UxC, LLC

Nicolas (Nick) Carter has 31 years of nuclear industry experience and currently holds the position of Executive Vice President, Uranium at UxC, LLC (UxC). He is responsible for managing and coordinating uranium consulting projects and products, including the Ux Weekly, Uranium Market Outlook, Uranium Suppliers Annual, and Uranium Production Cost Study. Mr. Carter has extensive and varied expertise, providing strategic consulting to major commercial companies in the nuclear fuel industry, and advising government and international organizations on uranium market and policy issues. He specializes in economic analysis and forecasting of the uranium market, specifically in the areas of worldwide U₃O₈ production capability, production costs, and price projections.

Andrew Miller

Chief Operating Officer
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence

Andrew Miller holds the position of COO at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Ltd (Benchmark), a London based research and consultancy firm focusing on critical raw materials and energy storage supply chains. Andrew oversees Benchmark’s supply chain research and analysis, which stretches from downstream assessments of anode, cathode and battery production through to price assessments and forecasting for the key lithium ion battery raw materials – lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite.

At Benchmark, Andrew regularly delivers industry presentations and travels to active mines and processing plants across the world. He has also advised some of the world’s leading institutional investors, auto OEMs, battery producers and mining companies, and manages a portfolio of subscription services which provide in-depth market data and reference pricing for the lithium ion battery supply chain. Andrew’s previous role was as an Analyst with Industrial Minerals / Metal Bulletin. Prior to this position, Andrew started his career analysing financial markets for UK-based Invesco Perpetual and graduated with a first-class honours degree in Economics from the University of East Anglia, UK.

Michael Gentile

Co-Founder of Bastion Asset Management
Strategic Investor in the Metals and Mining Sector

Mr. Gentile, CFA is considered one of the leading strategic investors in the junior mining sector, owning significant top five ownership stakes in over 20 small-cap mining companies. Mr. Gentile is currently a strategic advisor to Arianne Phosphate (DAN-V) and Geomeaga Resources (GMA-V) and director of Northern Superior Resources (SUP-V), Roscan Gold (ROS-V), Radisson Mining Resources (RDS-V) and Solstice Gold (SGC-V). Michael recently co-founded Bastion Asset Management in January 2022 a rapidly growing money management firm in Montreal with over $250MM in AUM and was previously a Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager with Formula Growth Limited.

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